Deep Decarbonization: A Roadmap for the California Cement and Concrete Industries

In early 2019, Buy Clean published a report titled “California’s Cement Industry: Failing the Climate Challenge” that benchmarked the energy use and CO₂ emissions intensity of the state’s cement industry in comparison to other key cement-producing countries. This report is a follow up to that study that offers a roadmap for decarbonization of California’s cement and concrete production. We develop scenarios up to 2040 to analyze different decarbonization levers that can help to reduce CO₂ emissions of cement and concrete production in California.

There are four key decarbonization levers in our analysis: energy efficiency, fuel switching, clinker substitution, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the total CO₂ emissions from California’s cement industry will increase from 7.9 MtCO₂ per year in 2015 to 10.7 MtCO₂ per year in 2040, a 36% increase. Under our Advanced Technology and Policy (Advanced) scenario, however, the total CO₂ emissions from California’s cement industry will decrease to about 2.5 MtCO₂ per year in 2040, a 68% reduction compared to the 2015 level, while cement production increases by 42% from 9.9 Mt in 2015 to 14.1 Mt in 2040.

The difference between the CO₂ emissions of California’s cement industry in the BAU and Advanced scenarios in 2040 is equal to the emissions of 1.8 million passenger cars per year, or annual electricity-related CO₂ emissions of around 4.9 million households in California.

Carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) could make the largest contribution to CO₂ emissions reduction in California’s cement industry through 2040, followed by clinker substitution and fuel switching. Energy efficiency technologies provide additional CO₂ emissions reductions potential. The Advanced Technology and Policy decarbonization scenario is achievable with commercially available and cost-effective technologies and measures, with the exception of CCUS technologies which require additional demonstration and financial support. Policy tools such as the California cap-and-trade program, the Buy Clean California Act, and the 45Q tax credit for CCS should be leveraged to incentivize both cement and concrete producers to move towards low-carbon cement and concrete production.